Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.97 – 126.11

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.7 ±40.8

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 98.56Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 70.82Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 25.59Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.9 ±11.2

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 18.58Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 84.87Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 22.66Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 930, 706, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

195 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 930, 706, 9992

Auto

61.5 33%

Teleop

100.6 54%

Endgame

25.2 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5096, 1732, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5096, 1732, 7900

Auto

31.5 26%

Teleop

38.9 32%

Endgame

50.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score195pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.9
Score range: 99–222
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.7Season APEX419.9

61.5Auto31.5

100.6Teleop38.9

25.2Endgame50.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	83
teleop	66	146
endgame	61	49
foul	0	0
total	185	278

Result

Final score

185 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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