Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.84 – 147.65

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 53.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.1 ±9.8

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 26.04Rank 20Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 3.5Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 66.3Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.8 ±9.8

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 47.82Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 33.14Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 66.69Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2826, 6223, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2826, 6223, 1259

Auto

21.7 22%

Teleop

38.1 39%

Endgame

38.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1792, 93, 6381

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1792, 93, 6381

Auto

38.5 26%

Teleop

99.5 67%

Endgame

11.0 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score95.8pts

Blue projected score147.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.8
Score range: 66–178
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 169.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.1Season APEX466.8

21.7Auto38.5

38.1Teleop99.5

38.8Endgame11

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	17
teleop	79	22
endgame	4	8
foul	0	0
total	102	47

Result

Final score

102 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 53.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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