Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

386.65 – 290.92

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

177 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 157.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.8 ±10.7

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 26.17Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 199.5Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 160.98Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.6 ±40.8

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.24Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 134.4Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 157.76Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11258, 1306, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.7 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11258, 1306, 1714

Auto

66.3 17%

Teleop

235.5 62%

Endgame

78.6 21%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9991, 6574, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 6574, 1732

Auto

74.6 26%

Teleop

138.1 48%

Endgame

73.8 26%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score386.7pts

Blue projected score290.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.7
Score range: 261–417
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 165.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.8Season APEX393.6

66.3Auto74.6

235.5Teleop138.1

78.6Endgame73.8

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	24
teleop	108	117
endgame	9	44
foul	5	0
total	177	185

Result

Final score

177 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 157.8 pts

Match videos

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