Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

426.91 – 339.7

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 218.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.8 ±10.7

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 39.91Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 212.24Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 174.76Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462 ±11.2

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 36.82Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 139.39Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 163.49Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11258, 1306, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11258, 1306, 1714

Auto

67.8 16%

Teleop

260.6 62%

Endgame

91.3 22%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6643, 6574, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.7 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6643, 6574, 1732

Auto

84.8 25%

Teleop

181.5 54%

Endgame

70.4 21%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score426.9pts

Blue projected score339.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.2
Score range: 310–457
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 165.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.8Season APEX462

67.8Auto84.8

260.6Teleop181.5

91.3Endgame70.4

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	18
teleop	69	72
endgame	0	117
foul	0	0
total	122	207

Result

Final score

122 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 218.8 pts

Match videos

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