Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.48 – 157.7

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.5 ±10.7

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 19.63Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 148.75Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 61.1Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.5 ±41.2

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 37.19Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 69.9Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 50.61Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3381, 2586, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.5 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3381, 2586, 930

Auto

37.5 17%

Teleop

129.0 57%

Endgame

58.6 26%

Strengths

· 2586 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1220, 9990, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.7 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1220, 9990, 3602

Auto

29.8 19%

Teleop

105.5 67%

Endgame

21.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score229.5pts

Blue projected score157.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.8
Score range: 130–257
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 157.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.5Season APEX214.5

37.5Auto29.8

129Teleop105.5

58.6Endgame21.8

5Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	26
teleop	136	26
endgame	67	0
foul	0	0
total	222	52

Result

Final score

222 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 pts