Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

320.51 – 219.41

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.8 ±10.7

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 156.45Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 172.51Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -8.45Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.5 ±10.7

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 16.75Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 145.26Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 57.4Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 2194, 9578

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.5 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1732, 2194, 9578

Auto

78.5 25%

Teleop

186.4 58%

Endgame

55.0 17%

Strengths

· 2194 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3381, 2586, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.4 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3381, 2586, 930

Auto

38.2 18%

Teleop

121.5 57%

Endgame

53.9 25%

Strengths

· 2586 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.53 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score320.5pts

Blue projected score219.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.1
Score range: 191–349
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 153.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.8Season APEX510.5

78.5Auto38.2

186.4Teleop121.5

55Endgame53.9

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	32
teleop	244	160
endgame	52	74
foul	0	0
total	341	266

Result

Final score

341 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts