Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.56 – 65.11

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.5 ±41.2

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 34.91Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 47.82Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 67.83Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.8 ±12.8

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 36.28Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 29.5Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -0.67Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1220, 3602, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1220, 3602, 9990

Auto

30.5 20%

Teleop

102.7 68%

Endgame

18.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5096, 2826, 7619

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5096, 2826, 7619

Auto

6.4 11%

Teleop

35.6 63%

Endgame

14.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score150.6pts

Blue projected score65.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.5
Score range: 37–179
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.5Season APEX322.8

30.5Auto6.4

102.7Teleop35.6

18.2Endgame14.6

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	9
teleop	121	27
endgame	39	41
foul	0	0
total	185	77

Result

Final score

185 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts