Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

331.97 – 53.46

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.8 ±10.7

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 159.81Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 176.6Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -4.44Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.6 ±11.7

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 15.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 32.65Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 5.58Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 2194, 9578

/ 100 compat

Projected

332 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1732, 2194, 9578

Auto

86.2 26%

Teleop

193.1 58%

Endgame

52.0 16%

Strengths

· 2194 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5586, 4531, 1716

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.5 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5586, 4531, 1716

Auto

5.4 10%

Teleop

31.8 57%

Endgame

18.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.91 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score332pts

Blue projected score53.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 278.5
Score range: 25–360
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 153.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.8Season APEX230.6

86.2Auto5.4

193.1Teleop31.8

52Endgame18.4

43Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	20
teleop	171	24
endgame	66	7
foul	0	0
total	299	51

Result

Final score

299 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts