Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.18 – 115.2

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.5 ±10.7

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 12.97Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 140.54Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 55.67Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.5 ±41.2

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 23.41Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 34.64Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.15Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3381, 2586, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.2 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3381, 2586, 930

Auto

40.0 20%

Teleop

120.5 60%

Endgame

40.7 20%

Strengths

· 2586 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1220, 3602, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.2 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1220, 3602, 9990

Auto

27.2 23%

Teleop

73.0 63%

Endgame

16.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score209.2pts

Blue projected score115.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94
Score range: 88–236
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.5Season APEX214.5

40Auto27.2

120.5Teleop73

40.7Endgame16.4

7Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	36
teleop	125	169
endgame	90	26
foul	0	0
total	248	231

Result

Final score

248 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 pts