Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.14 – 121.03

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.6 ±11.7

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 15.28Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 31.43Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 6.43Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±12.2

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 43.79Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 38.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 39.01Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 4531, 1716

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5586, 4531, 1716

Auto

2.5 4%

Teleop

39.1 69%

Endgame

14.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5096, 2826, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5096, 2826, 6318

Auto

13.9 13%

Teleop

61.1 55%

Endgame

35.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score53.1pts

Blue projected score121pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.9
Score range: 25–149
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 153.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.6Season APEX299.5

2.5Auto13.9

39.1Teleop61.1

14.8Endgame35.2

1Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	22
teleop	28	16
endgame	35	16
foul	0	0
total	76	54

Result

Final score

76 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 pts