Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.36 – 115.85

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 109.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±12.4

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 185.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 20.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 27.82Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.5 ±12.2

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 27.81Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 62.91Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 25.13Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 7619, 1716

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2194, 7619, 1716

Auto

53.2 22%

Teleop

136.1 55%

Endgame

57.0 23%

Strengths

· 2194 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9578, 4531, 7103

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9578, 4531, 7103

Auto

22.6 19%

Teleop

90.5 75%

Endgame

6.9 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score234.4pts

Blue projected score115.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.5
Score range: 86–264
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 164.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX234.5

53.2Auto22.6

136.1Teleop90.5

57Endgame6.9

0Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	24
teleop	37	30
endgame	17	4
foul	0	5
total	68	63

Result

Final score

68 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 109.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable