Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.55 – 161.53

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 111 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223 ±12.8

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 26.91Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 9.26Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 76.38Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.1 ±40.8

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 26.94Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 143.98Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -9.39Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3602, 3381, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3602, 3381, 5096

Auto

19.7 17%

Teleop

81.6 70%

Endgame

15.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4531, 2194, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4531, 2194, 9990

Auto

26.4 16%

Teleop

106.0 65%

Endgame

30.4 19%

Strengths

· 2194 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score112.6pts

Blue projected score161.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49
Score range: 84–191
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223Season APEX347.1

19.7Auto26.4

81.6Teleop106

15.7Endgame30.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	76
teleop	18	199
endgame	33	57
foul	0	0
total	61	332

Result

Final score

61 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 111 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable