Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.17 – 129.32

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.3 ±11.2

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 30.74Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 31.86Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 64.57Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271 ±41.2

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 35.21Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 64.06Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 30.05Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1220, 4531, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1220, 4531, 930

Auto

19.8 15%

Teleop

80.9 63%

Endgame

28.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5096, 9990, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5096, 9990, 2826

Auto

24.5 19%

Teleop

72.3 57%

Endgame

29.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score127.2pts

Blue projected score129.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 97–159
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 169.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.3Season APEX271

19.8Auto24.5

80.9Teleop72.3

28.7Endgame29.1

8Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	9
teleop	54	46
endgame	27	13
foul	5	15
total	95	83

Result

Final score

95 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable