Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.95 – 34.9

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.4 ±40.8

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.36Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 51.99Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 12.6Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.9 ±13.3

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 15.76Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 0.67Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 18.47Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 930, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

117 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 930, 5586

Auto

33.6 28%

Teleop

54.7 46%

Endgame

30.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7103, 1716, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.9 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7103, 1716, 1220

Auto

3.8 9%

Teleop

18.5 46%

Endgame

18.2 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score117pts

Blue projected score34.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.1
Score range: 7–145
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 155.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.4Season APEX217.9

33.6Auto3.8

54.7Teleop18.5

30.5Endgame18.2

4Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	10
teleop	99	59
endgame	18	16
foul	0	0
total	148	85

Result

Final score

148 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable