Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.94 – 28.76

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.4 ±9.8

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 13.26Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 31.86Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 149.82Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.5 ±13.9

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 4.29Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 4.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 20.24Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 4531, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5586, 4531, 2586

Auto

42.9 23%

Teleop

115.8 62%

Endgame

28.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1716, 9578, 3381

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.8 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1716, 9578, 3381

Auto

-9.7 0%

Teleop

14.3 41%

Endgame

29.9 87%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score194.9pts

Blue projected score28.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.2
Score range: -1–225
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 169.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.4Season APEX170.5

42.9Auto-9.7

115.8Teleop14.3

28Endgame29.9

17Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	3
teleop	90	20
endgame	38	29
foul	0	0
total	158	52

Result

Final score

158 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable