Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.78 – 140.3

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.7 ±10.4

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 44.12Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 37.02Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 35.64Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.9 ±12.4

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 124.9Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 28.95Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -13.55Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2826, 3602, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.8 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2826, 3602, 4531

Auto

28.7 25%

Teleop

78.0 67%

Endgame

9.3 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2586, 5096, 7619

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2586, 5096, 7619

Auto

20.7 16%

Teleop

75.9 58%

Endgame

33.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score116.8pts

Blue projected score140.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.5
Score range: 89–168
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.7Season APEX321.9

28.7Auto20.7

78Teleop75.9

9.3Endgame33.9

26Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	34
teleop	72	167
endgame	17	25
foul	0	35
total	103	261

Result

Final score

103 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable