Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.75 – 246.07

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 90.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.7 ±11.7

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 29.18Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 5.79Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 176.78Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 443.3 ±12.4

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 186.86Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 40.34Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 18.87Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6318, 3381, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.8 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6318, 3381, 2194

Auto

60.1 29%

Teleop

124.4 59%

Endgame

26.0 12%

Strengths

· 2194 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1732, 1220, 9578

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1732, 1220, 9578

Auto

58.6 24%

Teleop

146.6 61%

Endgame

34.7 14%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.53 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score211.8pts

Blue projected score246.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.3
Score range: 185–273
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 152.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.7Season APEX443.3

60.1Auto58.6

124.4Teleop146.6

26Endgame34.7

28Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	24
teleop	158	57
endgame	84	35
foul	0	0
total	263	116

Result

Final score

263 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 90.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable