Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.91 – 279.48

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

203 – 412

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.4 ±11.2

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -15.08Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 189.48Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 39.51Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.8 ±10.7

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 19.82Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 102.65Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 157.01Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7619, 1732, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7619, 1732, 4531

Auto

49.3 24%

Teleop

110.8 54%

Endgame

43.5 21%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1220, 2586, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.5 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1220, 2586, 2194

Auto

74.1 27%

Teleop

156.3 58%

Endgame

41.2 15%

Strengths

· 2194 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score213.9pts

Blue projected score279.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.6
Score range: 188–305
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.4Season APEX556.8

49.3Auto74.1

110.8Teleop156.3

43.5Endgame41.2

77Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	80
teleop	159	279
endgame	18	53
foul	0	0
total	203	412

Result

Final score

203 – 412

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable