Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.78 – 129.49

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.1 ±11.7

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 51.94Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 19.13Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 21.71Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 95 ±41.4

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 23.56Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 65.54Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 40.39Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 930, 7103, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.8 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 930, 7103, 5096

Auto

24.2 25%

Teleop

40.9 43%

Endgame

30.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9578, 9990, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9578, 9990, 6318

Auto

31.9 26%

Teleop

66.0 55%

Endgame

22.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score92.8pts

Blue projected score129.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.7
Score range: 67–155
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.1Season APEX95

24.2Auto31.9

40.9Teleop66

30.1Endgame22.7

76Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	14
teleop	67	52
endgame	37	17
foul	0	0
total	115	83

Result

Final score

115 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable