Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.11 – 49.66

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

94 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.1 ±12.8

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 12.86Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 43.44Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 6.81Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±11.7

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 1.1Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 16.62Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 31.94Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1220, 2826, 3381

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1220, 2826, 3381

Auto

3.3 5%

Teleop

24.8 40%

Endgame

34.3 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1716, 5586, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1716, 5586, 3602

Auto

10.8 18%

Teleop

42.4 70%

Endgame

7.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score63.1pts

Blue projected score49.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.5
Score range: 23–90
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 150.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.1Season APEX247.5

3.3Auto10.8

24.8Teleop42.4

34.3Endgame7.3

110Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	8
teleop	76	25
endgame	0	25
foul	0	0
total	94	58

Result

Final score

94 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable