Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.64 – 244.31

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.4 ±12.2

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 46.53Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 11.26Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 50.85Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.7 ±9.3

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 157.59Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 51.72Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 35Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4531, 1716, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.6 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4531, 1716, 6318

Auto

13.7 14%

Teleop

58.0 57%

Endgame

29.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2194, 930, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.3 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2194, 930, 3602

Auto

58.1 23%

Teleop

144.8 57%

Endgame

51.9 20%

Strengths

· 2194 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score108.6pts

Blue projected score244.3pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.7
Score range: 82–271
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 151.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.4Season APEX610.7

13.7Auto58.1

58Teleop144.8

29.3Endgame51.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	88
teleop	37	140
endgame	9	7
foul	0	0
total	50	235

Result

Final score

50 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable