Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.34 – 131.57

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 107.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.2 ±41.1

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -20.51Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 78.18Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 59.67Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.8 ±12.8

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 43.87Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 33.88Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 53.82Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1716, 2586, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1716, 2586, 9990

Auto

19.5 18%

Teleop

57.4 52%

Endgame

33.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5586, 5096, 9578

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5586, 5096, 9578

Auto

26.3 20%

Teleop

77.1 58%

Endgame

30.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score117.3pts

Blue projected score131.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.2
Score range: 89–160
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.2Season APEX196.8

19.5Auto26.3

57.4Teleop77.1

33.8Endgame30

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	13
teleop	154	11
endgame	44	6
foul	0	0
total	231	30

Result

Final score

231 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 107.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable