Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.71 – 31.02

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.5 ±40.8

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 65.12Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 194.66Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 38.93Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.8 ±12.4

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 7.32Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 59Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -35.3Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 1732, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.7 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 1732, 3602

Auto

70.2 25%

Teleop

161.1 57%

Endgame

50.8 18%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3381, 930, 7619

/ 100 compat

Projected

31 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3381, 930, 7619

Auto

3.6 10%

Teleop

-14.4 0%

Endgame

46.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score298.7pts

Blue projected score31pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 267.7
Score range: 4–326
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 151.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.5Season APEX347.8

70.2Auto3.6

161.1Teleop-14.4

50.8Endgame46.2

80Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	13
teleop	147	33
endgame	42	16
foul	0	0
total	266	62

Result

Final score

266 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable