Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.19 – 90.21

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.4 ±11.2

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 10.89Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 41.33Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 61.97Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.5 ±13.3

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 62.34Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 0.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 27.64Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2826, 9578, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.2 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2826, 9578, 2586

Auto

30.5 32%

Teleop

43.1 45%

Endgame

22.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6318, 1220, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6318, 1220, 5096

Auto

12.0 17%

Teleop

37.8 52%

Endgame

22.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score114.2pts

Blue projected score90.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample58alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24
Score range: 62–142
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 153.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.4Season APEX180.5

30.5Auto12

43.1Teleop37.8

22.5Endgame22.3

98Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	21
teleop	105	52
endgame	33	31
foul	5	0
total	175	104

Result

Final score

175 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable