WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.79 – 160.8

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.8 ±9.3

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 19.23Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 111.87Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 137.69Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.5 ±11.7

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 58.65Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 37.87Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 64.28Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 1792, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 1792, 1259

Auto

47.9 18%

Teleop

147.3 55%

Endgame

71.0 27%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10264, 7619, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10264, 7619, 4531

Auto

22.2 14%

Teleop

90.2 57%

Endgame

46.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score268.8pts

Blue projected score160.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108
Score range: 134–296
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 151.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.8Season APEX224.5

47.9Auto22.2

147.3Teleop90.2

71Endgame46.1

25Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	21
teleop	179	98
endgame	61	41
foul	0	0
total	279	160

Result

Final score

279 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 pts