WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.53 – 231.09

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.5 ±8.7

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 53.14Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 91.54Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 106.85Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.2 ±10.4

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 43.3Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 95.57Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 92.22Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 930, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 930, 2194

Auto

37.6 15%

Teleop

152.6 61%

Endgame

59.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6732, 706, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6732, 706, 8744

Auto

39.8 17%

Teleop

135.7 58%

Endgame

56.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score251.5pts

Blue projected score231.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.4
Score range: 204–279
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 150.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.5Season APEX294.2

37.6Auto39.8

152.6Teleop135.7

59Endgame56.6

19Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	50
teleop	81	79
endgame	66	87
foul	0	0
total	191	216

Result

Final score

191 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 37.8 pts