WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.67 – 202.26

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 75 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.8 ±9.3

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 26.36Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 119.76Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 145.55Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.9 ±13.1

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 73.82Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 41.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 1792, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 1792, 1259

Auto

49.1 17%

Teleop

167.7 58%

Endgame

71.7 25%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6574, 8782, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 8782, 171

Auto

29.3 15%

Teleop

114.8 59%

Endgame

49.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score291.7pts

Blue projected score202.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.4
Score range: 175–319
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 150.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.8Season APEX291.9

49.1Auto29.3

167.7Teleop114.8

71.7Endgame49.3

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	46
teleop	40	119
endgame	67	19
foul	0	10
total	150	194

Result

Final score

150 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 75 pts