WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.72 – 116.15

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.5 ±11.7

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 55.89Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 34.93Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 61.9Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±10.4

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 48.31Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 40.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 27.37Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10264, 7619, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10264, 7619, 4531

Auto

21.8 14%

Teleop

80.7 53%

Endgame

48.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2826, 9149, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2826, 9149, 4021

Auto

19.4 17%

Teleop

61.7 54%

Endgame

32.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.7pts

Blue projected score116.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.6
Score range: 89–180
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.5Season APEX344.7

21.8Auto19.4

80.7Teleop61.7

48.5Endgame32.7

68Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	40
teleop	120	66
endgame	36	69
foul	5	0
total	188	175

Result

Final score

188 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Match videos

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