WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.59 – 126.54

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±13.9

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 30.31Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 36.1Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 19.18Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.6 ±12.2

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 19.7Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 38.82Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 68.02Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6166, 11139, 8700

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6166, 11139, 8700

Auto

24.0 28%

Teleop

46.7 54%

Endgame

15.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 9578, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 9578, 5826

Auto

13.8 11%

Teleop

79.0 63%

Endgame

32.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.6pts

Blue projected score126.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.9
Score range: 59–154
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 149.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161Season APEX245.6

24Auto13.8

46.7Teleop79

15.5Endgame32.6

44Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	32
teleop	62	86
endgame	30	71
foul	0	5
total	129	194

Result

Final score

129 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts