Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
212.37 – 111.07
78%22%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
322 – 148
Prediction correct · off by 73.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.2 ±10.4
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 37.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91Event APEX 89.56Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 85.6Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 45.07Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67Event APEX 26.38Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 39.62Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6732, 706, 8744
82
/ 100 compatProjected
212.4 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 6732, 706, 8744
Auto
42.4 20%
Teleop
118.6 56%
Endgame
52.4 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2826, 4021, 9149
52
/ 100 compatProjected
111.1 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 2826, 4021, 9149
Auto
19.6 18%
Teleop
61.0 55%
Endgame
31.0 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.97
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score212.4pts
Blue projected score111.1pts
Red win probability78%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 101.3
- Score range
- 84–239
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
294.2Season APEX344.7
42.4Auto19.6
118.6Teleop61
52.4Endgame31
58Consistency23
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 20 |
| teleop | 212 | 69 |
| endgame | 77 | 44 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 322 | 148 |
Result
Final score
322 – 148
Prediction correct · off by 73.3 pts
Match videos
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