WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.39 – 165.94

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.5 ±8.7

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 48.75Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 88.15Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 102.49Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.5 ±11.7

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 60.61Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 38.9Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 66.43Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 930, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 930, 2194

Auto

31.0 13%

Teleop

151.8 64%

Endgame

53.3 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10264, 7619, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10264, 7619, 4531

Auto

20.0 12%

Teleop

87.3 53%

Endgame

56.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score239.4pts

Blue projected score165.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.4
Score range: 139–266
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.5Season APEX224.5

31Auto20

151.8Teleop87.3

53.3Endgame56.3

37Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	32
teleop	150	64
endgame	82	25
foul	0	0
total	299	121

Result

Final score

299 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 pts