WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.56 – 133.33

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.9 ±13.1

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 67.01Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 33.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 79.76Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.6 ±12.2

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 20.93Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 41.93Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 70.47Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 8782, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 8782, 171

Auto

24.0 14%

Teleop

110.9 62%

Endgame

42.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 9578, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 9578, 5826

Auto

11.7 9%

Teleop

82.6 62%

Endgame

38.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score180.6pts

Blue projected score133.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.2
Score range: 107–207
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 146.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.9Season APEX245.6

24Auto11.7

110.9Teleop82.6

42.7Endgame38.6

2Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	26
teleop	140	74
endgame	83	16
foul	35	5
total	316	121

Result

Final score

316 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 pts