WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.96 – 88.68

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

335 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.8 ±9.3

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 24.09Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 117.08Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 143.79Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±13.9

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 30.25Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 38.01Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 20.42Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 1792, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

285 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 1792, 1259

Auto

46.3 17%

Teleop

156.1 56%

Endgame

78.2 28%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6166, 11139, 8700

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6166, 11139, 8700

Auto

25.0 28%

Teleop

48.1 54%

Endgame

15.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score285pts

Blue projected score88.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.3
Score range: 63–311
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.8Season APEX161

46.3Auto25

156.1Teleop48.1

78.2Endgame15.8

43Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	25
teleop	216	49
endgame	50	14
foul	0	0
total	335	88

Result

Final score

335 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts