WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

203.88 – 272.13

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

241 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.9 ±13.1

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 74.1Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 42.74Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 87.04Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.8 ±9.3

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 20.22Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 113.01Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 138.9Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 8782, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 8782, 171

Auto

31.2 16%

Teleop

113.9 58%

Endgame

51.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5586, 1792, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 1792, 1259

Auto

49.4 18%

Teleop

152.1 56%

Endgame

68.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.9pts

Blue projected score272.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.2
Score range: 176–300
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 585 vs event baseline 155.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.9Season APEX513.8

31.2Auto49.4

113.9Teleop152.1

51Endgame68.6

2Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	77
teleop	94	198
endgame	102	69
foul	0	0
total	241	344

Result

Final score

241 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Match videos

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