WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

258.68 – 269.03

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.5 ±8.7

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 55.55Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 94.02Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 109.11Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.8 ±9.3

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 19.12Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 111.86Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 138.05Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 930, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 930, 2194

Auto

40.9 16%

Teleop

151.8 59%

Endgame

64.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5586, 1792, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 1792, 1259

Auto

46.4 17%

Teleop

151.4 57%

Endgame

69.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score258.7pts

Blue projected score269pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 231–297
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.5Season APEX513.8

40.9Auto46.4

151.8Teleop151.4

64.2Endgame69

10Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	69
teleop	89	154
endgame	52	65
foul	0	0
total	163	288

Result

Final score

163 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts