WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.41 – 228.61

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.9 ±13.1

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 73.48Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 42.15Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 85.78Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.2 ±10.4

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 42.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 94.88Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 91.32Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 8782, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 8782, 171

Auto

31.6 16%

Teleop

116.8 61%

Endgame

44.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6732, 706, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6732, 706, 8744

Auto

41.2 18%

Teleop

126.9 55%

Endgame

61.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.4pts

Blue projected score228.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.2
Score range: 173–257
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 153.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.9Season APEX294.2

31.6Auto41.2

116.8Teleop126.9

44Endgame61.4

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	35
teleop	93	137
endgame	96	83
foul	0	5
total	217	260

Result

Final score

217 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts