WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.01 – 139.21

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.5 ±8.7

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 49.66Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 87.92Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 103.43Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.6 ±12.2

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 23.67Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 43.49Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 72.05Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 930, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

241 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 930, 2194

Auto

38.8 16%

Teleop

139.9 59%

Endgame

60.3 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 9578, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 9578, 5826

Auto

16.4 12%

Teleop

82.2 60%

Endgame

38.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241pts

Blue projected score139.2pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.8
Score range: 112–268
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 151.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.5Season APEX245.6

38.8Auto16.4

139.9Teleop82.2

60.3Endgame38.7

27Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	32
teleop	217	45
endgame	91	48
foul	0	5
total	362	130

Result

Final score

362 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts