WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.05 – 107.62

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.2 ±12.8

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 25.19Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 17.43Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 12.43Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±12.8

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 55.71Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 17.43Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 34.48Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7619, 6732, 3381

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7619, 6732, 3381

Auto

12.7 23%

Teleop

32.4 59%

Endgame

10.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10264, 8024, 4054

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10264, 8024, 4054

Auto

15.9 15%

Teleop

59.1 55%

Endgame

32.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.1pts

Blue projected score107.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.6
Score range: 27–136
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 155.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.2Season APEX188.6

12.7Auto15.9

32.4Teleop59.1

10.1Endgame32.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	21
teleop	18	37
endgame	18	24
foul	0	10
total	51	92

Result

Final score

51 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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