WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.28 – 133.14

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.2 ±12.8

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 80Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 24.57Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 57.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.5 ±12.8

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 36Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 17.14Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 80Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 171, 11258, 11139

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 171, 11258, 11139

Auto

18.6 12%

Teleop

118.0 73%

Endgame

24.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6166, 3692, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6166, 3692, 8744

Auto

10.6 8%

Teleop

82.5 62%

Endgame

40.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.3pts

Blue projected score133.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.1
Score range: 106–189
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.2Season APEX219.5

18.6Auto10.6

118Teleop82.5

24.3Endgame40.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	18
teleop	24	82
endgame	32	53
foul	5	0
total	81	153

Result

Final score

81 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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