WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.06 – 178.15

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.8 ±10.4

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 61.73Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 61.43Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 72.9Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.8 ±11.2

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 112.82Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 56.7Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 8.63Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4531, 6574, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4531, 6574, 171

Auto

23.0 12%

Teleop

121.9 65%

Endgame

43.6 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1792, 10264, 11258

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1792, 10264, 11258

Auto

31.5 18%

Teleop

98.9 56%

Endgame

47.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.1pts

Blue projected score178.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.9
Score range: 152–222
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 143.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.8Season APEX366.8

23Auto31.5

121.9Teleop98.9

43.6Endgame47

50Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	25
teleop	180	121
endgame	68	90
foul	0	0
total	276	236

Result

Final score

276 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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