WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.21 – 215.86

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 101 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.8 ±11.2

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 99.45Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 23.34Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 98.42Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.7 ±11.2

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 7.65Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 93.71Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 114.5Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 706, 3692, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 706, 3692, 930

Auto

22.6 10%

Teleop

141.3 64%

Endgame

56.1 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8024, 8744, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8024, 8744, 2194

Auto

33.6 16%

Teleop

134.5 63%

Endgame

44.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221.2pts

Blue projected score215.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.3
Score range: 190–247
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.8Season APEX414.7

22.6Auto33.6

141.3Teleop134.5

56.1Endgame44.1

22Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	59
teleop	65	47
endgame	36	17
foul	0	0
total	112	123

Result

Final score

112 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 101 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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