WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.72 – 111.51

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

63 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±12.2

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 26.44Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 47.08Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 41.2Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.4 ±12.4

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 30.08Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 56.44Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 24.99Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 9578, 5903

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 9578, 5903

Auto

9.0 8%

Teleop

59.8 55%

Endgame

39.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4054, 135, 5019

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4054, 135, 5019

Auto

29.8 28%

Teleop

35.6 34%

Endgame

39.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.7pts

Blue projected score111.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.2
Score range: 86–141
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 145.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.1Season APEX213.4

9Auto29.8

59.8Teleop35.6

39.8Endgame39.9

6Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	16
teleop	42	20
endgame	9	3
foul	0	0
total	63	39

Result

Final score

63 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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