WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.55 – 73.02

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 80.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±13.1

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 34.84Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 65.05Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 28.66Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.1 ±12.8

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 33.27Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 21.81Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 17.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9149, 5826, 8782

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9149, 5826, 8782

Auto

26.8 20%

Teleop

73.0 56%

Endgame

31.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7619, 6166, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

73 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7619, 6166, 4021

Auto

17.8 25%

Teleop

40.3 56%

Endgame

14.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.6pts

Blue projected score73pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.5
Score range: 47–155
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.8Season APEX168.1

26.8Auto17.8

73Teleop40.3

31.5Endgame14.4

31Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	29
teleop	80	111
endgame	76	34
foul	5	0
total	188	174

Result

Final score

188 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 80.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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