WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.27 – 47.47

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.6 ±13.3

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 23.7Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 34.59Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 20.98Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.5 ±13.9

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 8.71Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 20.19Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 18.57Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11158, 11139, 2143

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11158, 11139, 2143

Auto

16.8 21%

Teleop

42.9 54%

Endgame

20.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3418, 8700, 3381

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3418, 8700, 3381

Auto

15.3 30%

Teleop

17.7 35%

Endgame

17.2 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.3pts

Blue projected score47.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.8
Score range: 21–105
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.6Season APEX169.5

16.8Auto15.3

42.9Teleop17.7

20Endgame17.2

51Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	23
teleop	54	29
endgame	10	19
foul	0	0
total	88	71

Result

Final score

88 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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