WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.48 – 278.36

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

173 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229 ±11.7

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 53.79Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 30.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 25.95Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 656.6 ±9.3

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 95.64Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 43.68Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 139.04Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4531, 6732, 1716

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4531, 6732, 1716

Auto

29.7 28%

Teleop

52.0 49%

Endgame

24.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 2826, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 930, 2826, 1259

Auto

38.3 14%

Teleop

160.5 58%

Endgame

76.0 28%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.5pts

Blue projected score278.4pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -167.9
Score range: 84–304
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229Season APEX656.6

29.7Auto38.3

52Teleop160.5

24Endgame76

68Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	37
teleop	82	170
endgame	63	110
foul	0	0
total	173	317

Result

Final score

173 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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