WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.74 – 123.38

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.4 ±12.8

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 58.18Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 3.71Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 45.85Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.3 ±11.7

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 30.33Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 27.42Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 65.63Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 11258, 9578

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 11258, 9578

Auto

10.7 11%

Teleop

61.4 62%

Endgame

27.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4054, 5586, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4054, 5586, 5826

Auto

25.4 21%

Teleop

55.8 46%

Endgame

40.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.7pts

Blue projected score123.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.6
Score range: 82–149
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.4Season APEX272.3

10.7Auto25.4

61.4Teleop55.8

27Endgame40.3

58Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	29
teleop	122	35
endgame	14	53
foul	0	15
total	150	132

Result

Final score

150 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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