WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.44 – 185.41

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±12.2

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 25.09Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 21.78Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 99.57Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.6 ±12.7

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 67.3Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 37.94Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 80.17Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2143, 3381, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 3381, 8744

Auto

14.9 10%

Teleop

84.7 57%

Endgame

48.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 135, 8782, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 8782, 171

Auto

33.8 18%

Teleop

102.4 56%

Endgame

47.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.4pts

Blue projected score185.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39
Score range: 120–211
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.3Season APEX261.6

14.9Auto33.8

84.7Teleop102.4

48.6Endgame47.2

52Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	28
teleop	56	19
endgame	23	40
foul	0	0
total	102	87

Result

Final score

102 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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