WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.65 – 184.8

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.8 ±9.3

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 117.38Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 112.97Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 36.3Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±11.2

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 25.69Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 19.23Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 139.88Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 1792, 9149

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2194, 1792, 9149

Auto

33.1 13%

Teleop

167.6 63%

Endgame

64.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11158, 4021, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11158, 4021, 1259

Auto

32.3 18%

Teleop

103.4 57%

Endgame

47.1 26%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score266.7pts

Blue projected score184.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.8
Score range: 159–293
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.8Season APEX316.1

33.1Auto32.3

167.6Teleop103.4

64.1Endgame47.1

53Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	47
teleop	159	86
endgame	21	40
foul	0	5
total	243	178

Result

Final score

243 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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