WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.87 – 111.74

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.3 ±13.3

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 37.13Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 20.7Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 23.04Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.6 ±12.8

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 16.83Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 19.31Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 75.6Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7619, 8700, 2143

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7619, 8700, 2143

Auto

15.0 18%

Teleop

40.5 50%

Endgame

26.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5019, 3381, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5019, 3381, 6574

Auto

10.9 10%

Teleop

71.3 67%

Endgame

23.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.9pts

Blue projected score111.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.9
Score range: 52–141
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 159.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.3Season APEX214.6

15Auto10.9

40.5Teleop71.3

26.3Endgame23.5

81Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	11
teleop	42	63
endgame	22	4
foul	0	0
total	79	78

Result

Final score

79 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 17.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.