WIN District Seven Rivers Event presented by Mathy Construction Company

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.52 – 117.21

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.3 ±12.8

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 7.16Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 97.43Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 25.93Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.6 ±13.1

8782TroBotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 35.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 54.3Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 27.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3418, 8744, 11158

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3418, 8744, 11158

Auto

31.2 23%

Teleop

67.1 51%

Endgame

34.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8782, 6574, 6732

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8782, 6574, 6732

Auto

23.3 20%

Teleop

67.6 59%

Endgame

22.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.5pts

Blue projected score117.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.3
Score range: 91–157
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.3Season APEX252.6

31.2Auto23.3

67.1Teleop67.6

34.5Endgame22.8

57Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	35
teleop	70	93
endgame	42	17
foul	0	0
total	138	145

Result

Final score

138 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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